Preparing for winter 2026: energy market outlook for UK businesses

What does Norway, France, a polar vortex and the President of the United States (US) have to do with your business’s overheads?

As you’ve likely guessed, each one – to some degree – will have an impact on how the global energy markets perform over the forthcoming winter, and therefore the price you pay for gas and electricity.

The biggest driver of energy prices

Perhaps unsurprisingly, geopolitical uncertainty – and in particular, the situation in the Middle East – looks set to remain the biggest driver of gas and power prices.

In our Winter 2026 Outlook paper, we present the three most likely developments in the US-Iran conflict – and analyse how each could affect global energy supplies and prices.

Closer to home, we also look at how European Union (EU) policy and gas storage targets are likely to impact energy prices as we get into the colder months.

And we take stock of the flow of global supplies of gas – and the potential for competition among different regions around the world.

Purchase more effectively

Why is this important? Because understanding what to watch out for over the winter months can help you to plan and implement a more effective energy-buying strategy.

Our Winter 2026 Outlook paper is just one of many regular reports and updates we produce on the Optimisation Desk to share with our flexible-purchasing customers.

Understanding winter weather

Predicting the weather is a complex science. But as we approach winter, having an indication of how cold it might get – and whether wind levels will be above or below seasonal norms – can be incredibly helpful.

That’s why our new paper explains and explores the impact of key weather drivers – from a displaced jet stream to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event and its impact on the polar vortex.

We also look at how the oil, carbon and coal markets could affect UK energy prices.

Whether or not you’re an Optimisation Desk customer, you can request your copy here.