Prices end the week at weekly lows on optimism for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gas and power
Power and gas prices closed lower on Friday, ending the week near weekly lows. Market sentiment throughout the week was largely driven by evolving expectations around a potential agreement between the US and Iran that could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the near term. While optimism around a diplomatic breakthrough increased, physical flows through the Strait remained subdued. Around 60 vessels were recorded transiting the waterway on Wednesday, still less than half the level seen prior to the conflict.
Adjacent markets
Despite continued Houthi attacks, oil markets eased on Friday as optimism grew around a potential US-Iran deal that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, Brent ended the week 2% higher, while WTI fell 7%. The unusual divergence between the two benchmarks was driven by reports of a potential US diesel export ban, which would increase domestic fuel supply and place greater downward pressure on US oil prices. Meanwhile, global equity markets recorded their best week since early August, as AI-driven optimism and hopes of improving Middle East energy supplies outweighed concerns over rising bond yields.
Closing prices
| |
NBP (p/therm)
|
|
UK Base (£/MWh)
|
|
| |
Close
|
Day on Day
|
Close
|
Day on Day
|
|
Oct-26
|
179.14
|
-9.03
|
142.02
|
-5.74
|
|
Nov-26
|
182.42
|
-8.97
|
149.87
|
-5.54
|
|
Dec-26
|
184.47
|
-8.9
|
147.64
|
-3.82
|
|
Q4-26
|
182.01
|
-8.96
|
146.54
|
-5.04
|
|
Q1-27
|
181.24
|
-8.14
|
149.10
|
-5
|
|
Q2-27
|
137.04
|
-4.38
|
108.13
|
-1.73
|
|
Win-26
|
181.63
|
-8.55
|
147.81
|
-4.88
|
|
Sum-27
|
131.28
|
-4
|
104.49
|
-2.17
|
|
Win-27
|
127.39
|
-2.97
|
106.48
|
-1.31
|
|
Sum-28
|
84.34
|
-0.58
|
72.10
|
-0.11
|
|
Win-28
|
91.59
|
-0.67
|
80.73
|
-0.85
|
