Friday 16th October 2026

Improved weather forecasts and ongoing geopolitical concerns see prices close mixed

Power and gas prices closed mixed yesterday, with near-term products moving lower while further dated contracts ended the session higher. Pressure on the near curve stemmed from an improved weather outlook, with temperatures now forecast to return above seasonal norms for the remainder of October and into November following this weekend’s dip. Meanwhile, further dated contracts remained supported by uncertainty surrounding the US and Iran and concerns over a prolonged or intensified conflict, following reports of new potential US strike plans which include the use of the “mother of all bombs” and further attacks on vessels in the region.

Oil edged lower yesterday despite continued attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Optimism surrounding the potential easing of US sanctions on "shadow fleet" vessels, which could reduce shipping costs, outweighed these bullish supply risks. Elsewhere, US PPI data came in above expectations, reinforcing the view that interest rates may remain higher for longer. The data also added pressure to technology stocks, extending the AI-driven selloff amid growing concerns over the financial health of some companies in the sector.

NBP (p/therm)

UK Base (£/MWh)

Close

Day on Day

Close

Day on Day

Nov-26

213.9

-1.78

168.5

-3.18

Dec-26

217.5

-1.16

168.8

-1.4

Jan-27

219.5

-0.91

182.9

-2.26

Q1-27

215.1

-0.9

174.8

-0.99

Q2-27

168.3

1.64

129.9

0.22

Q3-27

155.3

2.55

122.1

1.27

Sum-27

161.8

2.1

125.7

0.87

Win-27

154.5

2.27

125.3

0.67

Sum-28

96.0

1.25

80.3

0.31

Win-28

100.1

1.11

85.7

0.24

Sum-29

75.9

0.13

72.3

-0.34