Thursday 15th October 2026

 Geopolitical instability and tighter fundamentals see prices remain supported.

Gas and power

Power and gas prices closed broadly flat on near term products yesterday, while further dated contracts moved higher. Instability in the Middle East continued to sustain the geopolitical risk premium, with the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis escalating and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz increasing. Despite October only being halfway through, the number of attacks on vessels is on track to surpass the previous record set in March. Meanwhile, cooler weather forecasts and ongoing Norwegian outages tightened the near-term supply and demand balance. 

Adjacent markets

Oil markets moved higher yesterday as traders continued to assess Iran’s plans to maintain attacks on tankers transiting the region. Tensions remain elevated elsewhere in the Middle East, with continued fighting between Houthi and Saudi forces and reports of an attack on a building linked to Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company. These developments have kept geopolitical tensions high and reinforced concerns around supply disruption. Meanwhile, US CPI data came in above expectations, strengthening the case for higher interest rates. As a result, both US Treasury yields and the US dollar moved higher. 

Closing prices