Monday 17th August

Prices push higher as talks between the US and Iran stall

Following Monday's significant push higher, contracts traded within a tight range for the remainder of the week and closed on Friday broadly unchanged from Monday's close. This came as the market continued to await any meaningful developments in US-Iran negotiations and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The week ended with talks appearing deadlocked, as Iran maintained its demands for reopening the strait while the US continued to apply pressure, with the threat of an indefinite naval blockade. Elsewhere, day-ahead prices saw some relief on Friday as the exceptionally warm temperatures began to ease heading into the weekend.

Oil prices were volatile last week but ultimately finished higher, despite both the IEA and OPEC lowering their global oil demand forecasts, as fading optimism around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a slowdown in negotiations helped support prices. Sentiment was further bolstered towards the end of the week by renewed US threats to impose more severe economic measures on Iran. Meanwhile, UK and European equity markets recorded losses over the course of the week. Although softer US inflation data reduced concerns over further interest rate hikes, investor sentiment remained weighed down by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Closing price as of 16 Aug 2026

NBP (p/therm)

Sep-26

150.33

Q4-26

153.54

Q1-27

147.64

Win-26

150.61

Sum-27

95.96

UK Base (£/MWh)

Sep-26

123.75

Q4-26

127.84

Q1-27

123.98

Win-26

125.88

Sum-27

83.73