Wednesday 5th August

Power and gas prices volatile amid uncertain geopolitics

Power and gas prices were volatile during yesterday’s session. Prices initially traded higher and remained near weekly highs for much of the day, as uncertainty surrounding diplomatic progress between the US and Iran weighed on sentiment after Iran denied President Trump’s claims that talks were underway. Reports of vessels being struck in the Strait by unidentified projectiles further eroded optimism around a potential peace deal. However, prices fell sharply into the close after US officials suggested an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as the following day, renewing optimism and leaving prices lower across the curve by the end of the session.

Oil markets hit a three-week low on reports that a deal was close to being agreed to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. An encouraging update from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a deal was very close, while a spokesperson for Qatar confirmed that diplomatic efforts had reached “very progressive stages”. US equity markets continued their recent strength, with the benchmark S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high.

NBP (p/therm)

UK Base (£/MWh)

Close

Day on Day

Close

Day on Day

Sep-26

136.478

-5.030

116.125

-3.410

Oct-26

137.003

-4.930

112.050

-3.920

Nov-26

140.678

-4.700

123.745

-2.660

Q4-26

139.905

-4.680

119.160

-3.090

Q1-27

134.016

-3.580

115.480

-2.020

Q2-27

92.813

-0.690

82.600

-1.610

Win-26

136.977

-4.130

117.280

-2.570

Sum-27

89.414

-0.780

80.530

-1.070

Win-27

89.023

-0.520

82.220

-1.080

Sum-28

66.225

-0.080

63.095

-0.090

Win-28

74.387

0.220

70.685

-0.270

Closing price as of 04 Aug 2026

NBP (p/therm)

Sep-26

136.48

Q4-26

139.91

Q1-27

134.02

Win-26

136.98

Sum-27

89.41

UK Base (£/MWh)

Sep-26

116.13

Q4-26

119.16

Q1-27

115.48

Win-26

117.28

Sum-27

80.53