Thursday 13th August

Prices remain elevated with no progress towards geopolitical de-escalation.

Despite continued volatility, power and gas contracts remained supported during yesterday’s session, with no progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. There had been hopes that mediation efforts by Pakistan could help facilitate a return to negotiations between the US and Iran. However, an Iranian source has since indicated that no breakthrough has been made on that front. Additionally, following the immobilisation of a cargo vessel on Tuesday, Trump stated that the US maintains full control of the Strait and intends to retain it. With no signs of de-escalation, geopolitical uncertainty continues to keep prices elevated.

Oil markets were volatile yesterday but ultimately ended the session lower, despite reports of fresh attacks on vessels in the Middle East and signs that negotiations between the US and Iran may have reached a deadlock, as both OPEC and the IEA lowered their global oil demand forecasts for 2026. Meanwhile, UK and European equities closed lower despite a softer US CPI reading, which eased concerns around further interest rate hikes, as investors instead focused on the renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

NBP (p/therm)

UK Base (£/MWh)

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Day on Day

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Day on Day

Sep-26

149.53

4.85

122.84

2.44

Oct-26

150.3425

5.01

120.71

2.88

Nov-26

153.52

4.65

131.12

2.05

Q4-26

153.0205

4.78

127.05

2.39

Q1-27

147.077

4.41

123.535

2.28

Q2-27

98.1955

2.54

85.54

2.23

Win-26

150.0715

4.61

125.265

2.35

Sum-27

94.7605

2.51

83.08

2.21

Win-27

93.341

2.23

85.105

1.17

Sum-28

69.313

1.7

65.1

0.98

Win-28

76.4395

1.17

72.595

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