Thursday 1st October 2026

Prices move higher on sustained geopolitical concerns and tightening gas market fundamentals

Power and gas prices moved higher on Wednesday following reports that a vessel had been struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns over the security of shipping through the region. Fundamentals also provided support. German state-owned energy company SEFE confirmed it had been instructed by the Economy Ministry to procure an additional 8 TWh of gas by 15 December, increasing expected demand into Q4. Meanwhile, temperature forecasts across Europe remained above seasonal norms for October, reducing the likelihood of significant early-winter storage withdrawals.

Oil prices rose yesterday, reversing some of the previous day’s losses, as negotiations between the US and Iran appeared to stall and US fuel inventories declined. Iran has received the US response to its latest proposal to revive the collapsed ceasefire in the Gulf, after President Trump rejected it. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s main indices gained as softer than expected inflation data supported hopes that the Federal Reserve may refrain from further interest rate increases.

NBP (p/therm)

UK Base (£/MWh)

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Day on Day

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Day on Day

Nov-26

183.79

8.23

150.75

5.07

Dec-26

185.58

7.94

148.375

5.23

Jan-27

186.47

7.67

157.68

5.93

Q1-27

182.17

7.39

151.225

5.17

Q2-27

136.98

4.31

108.855

2.53

Q3-27

126.07

3.95

102.14

2.23

Sum-27

131.51

4.13

105.225

2.57

Win-27

126.00

2.37

106.11

1.32

Sum-28

83.40

1.77

71.24

0.4

Win-28

90.29

1.17

80.145

-0.16

Sum-29

70.18

0.94

67.475

0.44