Markets close higher as prolonged supply disruption continues to be priced in.
Gas and power
Both gas and power markets closed higher yesterday as the market continued to price in the risk of prolonged disruption across the forward curve. Despite little in the way of fresh developments, Summer-27 and further-dated contracts reached new highs as traders weighed the potential for continued instability in the Middle East, with no material updates regarding US-Iran negotiations. Additionally, Europe's storage level continued to provide underlying support, remaining significantly below previous years' level and reinforcing concerns over a tighter winter supply-demand balance, with less flexibility available should supply disruptions occur.
Adjacent markets
US equities gained on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high, supported by strength in electricity supplier stocks as the AI rally broadened. Oil prices, after trading lower earlier in the session, recovered to close slightly higher above $100 per barrel despite the G7 reserve release and increased flows from the Middle East.
Closing prices
|
NBP (p/therm) |
UK Base (£/MWh) |
|||
|
Close |
Day on Day |
Close |
Day on Day |
|
|
Nov-26 |
187.9 |
4.81 |
151.9 |
2.48 |
|
Dec-26 |
191.0 |
5.22 |
151.8 |
3.76 |
|
Jan-27 |
192.6 |
5.37 |
163.8 |
3.61 |
|
Q1-27 |
188.5 |
5.32 |
155.2 |
3.5 |
|
Q2-27 |
147.6 |
4.99 |
115.8 |
3.69 |
|
Q3-27 |
137.2 |
4.85 |
108.5 |
3.61 |
|
Sum-27 |
142.4 |
4.92 |
112.0 |
3.76 |
|
Win-27 |
137.3 |
4.62 |
112.8 |
2.28 |
|
Sum-28 |
90.8 |
3.41 |
76.4 |
1.53 |
|
Win-28 |
96.5 |
2.12 |
84.3 |
1.39 |
|
Sum-29 |
73.7 |
0.31 |
71.3 |
1.45 |