Prices fall across the curve as the Iran and Israel halt military action.
Gas and power
Prices fell on Tuesday but remained within the recent trading range. Markets took an optimistic view that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, along with the pause in fresh military action with Iran, would help deliver a lasting solution. News reports that more shipping was passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including a small number of LNG shipments from Qatar, helped to improve sentiment. Short term market fundamentals remained positive, although medium range forecasts are currently showing below seasonal normal wind generation towards the end of June and into the start of July which could support power prices.
Adjacent markets
Oil markets dropped to trade close to their lowest level since April, as tracking data showed more vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright commented that vessel movements were “rising very meaningfully”, sparking hopes that the conflict could end soon. The absence of further strikes between Israel and Iran also helped to boost sentiment. Equities fell on renewed concerns about overvalued technology stocks.
Closing prices
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| Jul-26 | 117.03 | -3.89 | 102.50 | -2.84 |
| Aug-26 | 117.50 | -3.77 | 99.25 | -3.28 |
| Sep-26 | 119.03 | -3.75 | 102.75 | -2.27 |
| Q3-26 | 117.85 | -3.80 | 101.25 | -3.00 |
| Q4-26 | 122.83 | -3.00 | 106.00 | -1.57 |
| Q1-27 | 119.63 | -2.33 | 102.70 | -1.29 |
| Win-26 | 121.23 | -2.68 | 104.25 | -1.39 |
| Sum-27 | 85.50 | -1.05 | 77.45 | -1.11 |
| Win-27 | 86.25 | -0.47 | 79.75 | -0.41 |
| Sum-28 | 64.33 | -0.55 | 60.75 | -0.14 |
| Win-28 | 72.00 | -0.74 | 69.00 | -0.64 |