US-Iran optimism drives power and gas prices lower.
Gas and power
Power and gas prices fell on Monday, dropping nearly 8% on near-term contracts. Optimism around a diplomatic resolution gained momentum throughout the session, as markets continued to react to Iran’s proposed two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and progress in ongoing talks with Qatari mediators. Sentiment was further supported by greater negotiating authority being granted to the Iranian government, alongside encouraging signals from the US. However, uncertainty remained, with both Iran and the US signalling they were prepared to resume fighting should talks fail.
Adjacent markets
Oil fell 7% on Monday as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of an end to the US-Iran conflict and a stabilisation of Middle East energy supplies. The discussions followed recent attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, although exports from some major producers have shown signs of recovery, with Saudi crude exports rising in October. Meanwhile, carbon remained supported by strength in gas and power markets, cold and calm conditions, and favourable fuel switching economies.
Closing prices
|
NBP (p/therm) |
UK Base (£/MWh) |
|||
|
Close |
Day on Day |
Close |
Day on Day |
|
|
Dec-26 |
117.45 |
-11.35 |
90.95 |
-7.52 |
|
Jan-27 |
118.255 |
-11.06 |
98.515 |
-7.17 |
|
46419 |
117.43 |
-10.79 |
96.175 |
-7.29 |
|
Q1-27 |
115.4185 |
-10.68 |
93.39 |
-7.1 |
|
Q2-27 |
88.72 |
-7.28 |
66.94 |
-4.34 |
|
Q3-27 |
82.387 |
-6.1 |
62.855 |
-3.34 |
|
Sum-27 |
85.536 |
-6.69 |
64.885 |
-3.83 |
|
Win-27 |
81.669 |
-5.58 |
64.38 |
-3.94 |
|
Sum-28 |
49.92 |
-3.81 |
40.825 |
-2.57 |
|
Win-28 |
52.085 |
-3.5 |
43.66 |
-2.46 |
|
Sum-29 |
38.60 |
-2.31 |
36.85 |
-0.91 |