Prices close higher on rising geopolitical tensions
Gas and power
Power and gas prices settled higher on Monday following reports from Iranian state media that Tehran had paused communication with the US negotiating team and was considering a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside potential disruption to additional shipping routes. Alongside a lack of Qatari supply, LNG availability remained constrained, with both the Cameron and Freeport liquefaction facilities in the US operating at reduced capacity due to ongoing maintenance.
Adjacent markets
UK and European equities closed lower yesterday following reports of US–Iran attacks over the weekend, which dampened recent market optimism for a deal between the two sides. Sentiment weakened further later in the session after reports that Iran would halt communications with the US in response to Israel’s escalating incursion into Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices surged on the news, rising by over $6 per barrel during the session.
Closing prices
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| Jul-26 | 119.17 | 8.94 | 103.60 | 4.04 |
| Aug-26 | 119.10 | 8.61 | 101.44 | 4.19 |
| Sep-26 | 119.87 | 8.31 | 103.40 | 3.63 |
| Q3-26 | 119.38 | 8.62 | 102.78 | 4.22 |
| Q4-26 | 121.91 | 7.11 | 105.35 | 3.74 |
| Q1-27 | 118.27 | 6.10 | 101.99 | 2.23 |
| Win-26 | 120.10 | 6.61 | 103.45 | 2.92 |
| Sum-27 | 86.59 | 3.22 | 78.15 | 1.53 |
| Win-27 | 87.34 | 2.57 | 80.50 | 0.50 |
| Sum-28 | 65.57 | 0.63 | 61.14 | -0.36 |
| Win-28 | 73.46 | 0.95 | 70.12 | 0.02 |