De-escalation hopes drive first weekly decline in five weeks
Gas and power
Power and gas markets recorded their first weekly decline in five weeks, with contracts falling significantly from Monday’s opening levels. Prices came under pressure as hopes of de-escalation between the US and Iran increased, supported by greater mediation efforts from Qatar and the absence of further US escalation. Prices eased further on Friday as LNG loadings at Ras Laffan recovered to around 70% of capacity, improving expectations of a return towards normal operations. Despite the downward move, the wider geopolitical situation remained uncertain.
Adjacent markets
Last week, oil prices experienced a sharp decline after the Democrat’s victory in the US midterm elections raised hopes of de-escalation of the war in Iran, unwinding some of the risk premium despite continued reports of attacks on vessels. Meanwhile, European stocks fell amid a broad sell off as investors reassessed the outlook of AI stocks, while US stocks rallied and recovered some of the losses driven by concerns a Democrat-controlled Congress could introduce tighter regulation of the AI sector.
Closing prices
|
NBP (p/therm) |
UK Base (£/MWh) |
|||
|
Close |
Day on Day |
Close |
Day on Day |
|
|
Dec-26 |
212.7875 |
-11.42 |
174.25 |
-7.05 |
|
Jan-27 |
214.4275 |
-11.17 |
184.27 |
-7.63 |
|
Feb-27 |
212.7375 |
-10.8 |
179.42 |
-7.43 |
|
Q1-27 |
209.0935 |
-10.23 |
173.475 |
-6.88 |
|
Q2-27 |
163.6195 |
-3.39 |
126.9 |
-1.82 |
|
Q3-27 |
153.0235 |
-1.83 |
119.765 |
-0.6 |
|
Sum-27 |
158.307 |
-2.61 |
123.225 |
-1.16 |
|
Win-27 |
151.289 |
-1.75 |
121.11 |
-1.48 |
|
Sum-28 |
92.6255 |
-0.3 |
76.875 |
-0.94 |
|
Win-28 |
97.163 |
-0.19 |
84.255 |
-0.75 |
|
Sum-29 |
70.569 |
-0.11 |
68.295 |
-1.83 |