Prices end the week lower on hopes for a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz
Gas and power
Power and gas markets fell on Friday, capping a volatile week that left most contracts lower than the previous week. Geopolitical headlines dominated price action throughout the week, with ongoing talks between Iran and Oman over the future management of the Strait of Hormuz the most significant driver. Reports suggested that Iran was seeking to levy fees on vessels passing through the Strait and assume responsibility for managing shipping entering the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump has said he expects the war to be over soon, but it remains unclear whether the US will accept a deal that gives Iran significant control over the Strait.
Adjacent markets
Oil prices started Friday’s session higher after reports suggested the proposed Iran–Oman agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would exclude US and Israeli vessels. However, prices moved lower later in the day amid growing signs that Gulf nations were edging closer to a temporary agreement to restore shipping through the Strait, leaving oil markets down by around 10% over the week. Meanwhile, equity markets enjoyed a broadly positive week, supported by lower oil prices and corporate earnings. On Friday, weak US labour market data further boosted sentiment by reducing the likelihood of interest rate hikes, helping the STOXX Europe 600 reach a fresh record high.
Closing prices
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| Sep-26 | 135.975 | -1.230 | 115.570 | 0.540 |
| Oct-26 | 136.290 | -0.960 | 112.065 | -0.560 |
| Nov-26 | 140.153 | -0.800 | 123.395 | 0.200 |
| Q4-26 | 139.293 | -0.740 | 118.995 | -0.020 |
| Q1-27 | 133.989 | 0.080 | 115.665 | 0.510 |
| Q2-27 | 94.110 | 0.010 | 83.160 | 0.380 |
| Win-26 | 136.655 | -0.330 | 117.290 | 0.240 |
| Sum-27 | 90.851 | -0.140 | 81.460 | 0.240 |
| Win-27 | 89.334 | -0.400 | 83.325 | -0.390 |
| Sum-28 | 67.127 | -0.680 | 64.270 | 0.530 |
| Win-28 | 74.724 | -0.280 | 72.160 | -0.020 |