Prices firm on renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
Gas and power
Prices moved higher on Thursday as optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement faded. Market sentiment was influenced by reports suggesting that President Trump believed tensions with Iran could re-escalate following the November mid-term elections. On the fundamentals side, Norway’s Gassco stated that it remains well positioned to maintain reliable gas supplies to Europe through the winter period as this year’s maintenance programme draws to a close.
Adjacent markets
Oil had a volatile session yesterday but ultimately closed higher following reports the US is sending additional troops and carriers to the Middle East, while China’s suspension of oil exports raised concerns that global fuel shortages could worsen. Reports suggest the US is sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East as President Trump weighs the possibility of renewed strikes after the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, government bond yields surged to multi-decade highs yesterday amid expectations of stronger economic growth, persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.
Closing prices
|
NBP (p/therm) |
UK Base (£/MWh) |
||||
|
Close |
Day on Day |
Close |
Day on Day |
||
|
Nov-26 |
185.4275 |
1.64 |
152.1 |
1.35 |
|
|
Dec-26 |
187.4125 |
1.84 |
150.2 |
1.82 |
5.23 |
|
Jan-27 |
188.32 |
1.85 |
161.11 |
3.43 |
5.93 |
|
Q1-27 |
183.9665 |
1.79 |
152.63 |
1.41 |
5.17 |
|
Q2-27 |
140.168 |
3.19 |
111.85 |
3 |
2.53 |
|
Q3-27 |
128.1245 |
2.05 |
103.52 |
1.38 |
2.23 |
|
Sum-27 |
134.131 |
2.62 |
107.285 |
2.06 |
2.57 |
|
Win-27 |
128.401 |
2.4 |
107.88 |
1.77 |
1.32 |
|
Sum-28 |
84.473 |
1.07 |
72.81 |
1.57 |
0.4 |
|
Win-28 |
91.624 |
1.34 |
81.605 |
1.46 |
-0.16 |
|
Sum-29 |
71.348 |
1.16 |
68.575 |
1.1 |
0.44 |