Prices remain volatile amid geopolitical developments
Gas and power
Power and gas prices were volatile yesterday, displaying a wide intraday range amid developments in the US–Iran conflict. Prices initially opened significantly higher and remained supported for most of the session following reports of fresh attacks by both sides. However, they fell sharply into the close, leaving contracts only slightly higher on the day after an Axios report suggested the two countries had agreed to extend their ceasefire by a further 60 days to allow for negotiations, pending President Trump’s approval.
Adjacent markets
Risk sentiment improved through Thursday’s session, with US equities moving back into positive territory after reports suggested the United States and Iran had agreed to extend the ceasefire and move towards negotiations following this week’s exchange of air strikes. The shift in tone also weighed on oil prices, which gave back part of the morning’s gains as optimism around a potential reopening of the strait helped ease immediate supply concerns. That said, markets remained cautious to any strong moves, as the proposed agreement still required final approval from President Trump, who reportedly told mediators he would like a few more days before making a final decision.
Closing prices
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| Jun-26 | 113.47 | 0.47 | 101.02 | 2.15 |
| Jul-26 | 113.02 | 0.85 | 100.72 | 1.78 |
| Aug-26 | 113.31 | 0.68 | 98.36 | 1.31 |
| Q3-26 | 113.56 | 0.69 | 99.41 | 1.37 |
| Q4-26 | 117.56 | 0.56 | 103.08 | 1.17 |
| Q1-27 | 114.70 | 0.48 | 101.07 | 1.39 |
| Win-26 | 116.14 | 0.52 | 102.06 | 1.27 |
| Sum-27 | 84.93 | -0.05 | 77.58 | 1.24 |
| Win-27 | 86.15 | 0.02 | 79.95 | 0.10 |
| Sum-28 | 64.68 | -0.01 | 61.44 | 0.11 |
| Win-28 | 72.65 | 0.02 | 69.49 | -0.14 |