Markets remain supported amid limited progress on geopolitical tensions
Gas and power
Power and gas contracts traded within a relatively tight range yesterday but ultimately closed higher. With little progress in US-Iran negotiations, market sentiment remained supported by geopolitical concerns. Contradicting President Trump's comments earlier in the week, Iran reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz is "under Iran's control and management," while US Defence Secretary Hegseth stated that the US blockade could remain in place indefinitely, signalling no signs of imminent de-escalation.
Adjacent markets
Oil prices continued to decline yesterday, falling by around 3% as markets reacted to recently downgraded 2026 demand forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC. However, concerns surrounding stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz helped limit the extent of the losses. Meanwhile, UK and European equity markets closed lower despite reduced expectations of further interest rate increases, as investors digested slowing UK GDP growth data and interpreted the softer oil demand outlook as a signal of slowing global economic growth.
Closing prices
|
NBP (p/therm) |
UK Base (£/MWh) |
|||
|
Close |
Day on Day |
Close |
Day on Day |
|
|
Sep-26 |
149.215 |
-0.31 |
123.115 |
0.28 |
|
Oct-26 |
149.99 |
-0.35 |
121.015 |
0.3 |
|
Nov-26 |
153.115 |
-0.41 |
131.34 |
0.22 |
|
Q4-26 |
152.63 |
-0.39 |
127.505 |
0.45 |
|
Q1-27 |
146.914 |
-0.16 |
124.12 |
0.59 |
|
Q2-27 |
99.3675 |
1.17 |
85.22 |
-0.32 |
|
Win-26 |
149.7875 |
-0.28 |
125.835 |
0.57 |
|
Sum-27 |
95.921 |
1.16 |
83.14 |
0.06 |
|
Win-27 |
93.7705 |
0.43 |
85.61 |
0.51 |
|
Sum-28 |
69.699 |
0.39 |
64.605 |
-0.5 |
|
Win-28 |
76.7585 |
0.32 |
72.875 |
0.28 |