Prices close lower despite reports that the US would strike Iran overnight
Gas and power
Power and gas prices closed lower on Thursday despite comments from President Trump indicating that the US would strike Iran “very hard” overnight, including targeting Kharg Island and other key energy infrastructure. The muted market response to these developments highlighted a degree of scepticism among participants, with questions remaining over the credibility and intent behind such rhetoric. Reports earlier in the session indicated that a political agreement between the US and Iran had been finalised, with discussions shifting toward the status of Iran’s frozen oil revenues.
Adjacent markets
Global equities strengthened on Thursday, with technology and semiconductor stocks leading the way. The ECB raised interest rates in the eurozone for the first time since 2023, with the central bank concerned about the impact of energy prices on inflation. Oil prices rose in another volatile session, as Donald Trump raised the prospect of further military action against Iran, including the possibility of targeting the Iranian oil hub on Kharg Island.
Closing prices
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| Jul-26 | 119.8 | -0.7 | 103.6 | -0.6 |
| Aug-26 | 120.4 | -0.4 | 100.0 | -0.9 |
| Sep-26 | 121.7 | -0.4 | 104.2 | -0.4 |
| Q3-26 | 120.6 | -0.5 | 102.6 | -0.6 |
| Q4-26 | 125.7 | -0.3 | 108.1 | -0.2 |
| Q1-27 | 123.0 | 0.2 | 105.3 | 0.7 |
| Win-26 | 124.4 | -0.1 | 106.6 | 0.2 |
| Sum-27 | 87.4 | 0.7 | 78.8 | 0.1 |
| Win-27 | 87.6 | 0.6 | 80.4 | -0.1 |
| Sum-28 | 65.1 | 0.5 | 61.0 | -0.3 |
| Win-28 | 73.4 | 0.5 | 69.6 | 0.1 |