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Markets rose as prolonged conflict risks and escalation concerns intensified |
Gas and power
Markets moved higher yesterday as investors continued to price in the prospect of a prolonged conflict. Concerns over further escalation remained elevated after the US threatened to target Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected nuclear site, following signs of renewed activity. Additionally, reports that President Trump's advisers believe the conflict could last through the remainder of his presidency further reinforced expectations that tensions are unlikely to ease in the near term. With US officials also downplaying the prospect of diplomatic talks, stating “it’s not something we’re looking at”, markets continued to price in a prolonged conflict and an elevated risk of further escalation.
Adjacent markets
Oil extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session to reach $107 as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly seized control of Yemen’s port city of Mocha and advanced along the Red Sea coast, strengthening their position near the strategically important Bab ek-Mandeb Strait and raising concerns over further disruptions to global energy trade routes. Meanwhile, the ECB has raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5% on inflation concerns driven by higher energy costs.
Closing prices
|
NBP (p/therm) |
UK Base (£/MWh) |
|||
|
Close |
Day on Day |
Close |
Day on Day |
|
|
Oct-26 |
205.12 |
7.25 |
156.70 |
4.38 |
|
Nov-26 |
207.95 |
7.61 |
167.85 |
5.22 |
|
Dec-26 |
209.32 |
7.62 |
166.25 |
4.49 |
|
Q4-26 |
207.46 |
7.5 |
163.45 |
4.85 |
|
Q1-27 |
204.87 |
8.23 |
164.67 |
5.47 |
|
Q2-27 |
142.71 |
5.9 |
112.91 |
4.23 |
|
Win-26 |
206.17 |
7.85 |
164.07 |
5.21 |
|
Sum-27 |
136.61 |
5.62 |
108.93 |
3.86 |
|
Win-27 |
129.69 |
4.52 |
108.76 |
3.2 |
|
Sum-28 |
81.47 |
1.69 |
71.18 |
0.43 |
|
Win-28 |
88.54 |
1.65 |
80.82 |
1.07 |