Power and gas prices move lower amid geopolitical optimism.
Gas and power
Power and gas markets moved lower yesterday, despite reports of heavy US attacks in the Iranian city of Isfahan and damage to a Kuwaiti oil tanker caused by Iran. Markets appeared to take some optimism from President Trump’s comments suggesting he would consider winding down the conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting that his primary objective was to “make sure that they don’t have a nuclear weapon”. Many market participants interpreted this as a sign that the President may be distancing himself from his earlier objectives, raising hopes of a potential de-escalation.
Adjacent markets
Wall Street’s major indexes rose on Tuesday, buoyed by reports hinting at a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Fresh economic data painted a mixed picture, with February JOLTS Job Openings falling slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, oil prices firmed after Kuwait reported that one of its tankers had been struck in an Iranian attack at a port in Dubai, heightening supply concerns and reigniting inflation fears linked to the broader Iran related tensions. As a result, markets further scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| May-26 | 127.85 | -10.46 | 97.05 | -4.92 |
| Jun-26 | 126.21 | -10.61 | 99.26 | -5.73 |
| Jul-26 | 125.05 | -10.76 | 98.24 | -4.67 |
| Q3-26 | 125.81 | -10.77 | 99.21 | -4.63 |
| Q4-26 | 129.39 | -11.39 | 100.88 | -5.91 |
| Q1-27 | 129.37 | -11.48 | 103.09 | -5.16 |
| Win-26 | 129.38 | -11.44 | 101.87 | -5.64 |
| Sum-27 | 96.55 | -6.37 | 77.63 | -2.39 |
| Win-27 | 95.88 | -5.31 | 83.12 | -1.36 |
| Sum-28 | 68.90 | -2.71 | 64.62 | -0.56 |
| Win-28 | 73.69 | -1.27 | 71.98 | -0.66 |