Prices climb as hopes for a peace deal weaken
Gas and power
Power and gas prices moved higher on Monday as ongoing LNG supply concerns continued to underpin the market. A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared at risk following reports that the US Navy had seized an Iranian cargo vessel, raising fresh doubts over near‑term stability. At the same time, Iran was reportedly considering participation in peace talks with the US in Pakistan, although confidence remained low amid conflicting signals. Overall, markets adopted a cautious wait‑and‑see approach, closely monitoring whether Iran ultimately engages in negotiations.
Adjacent markets
Oil prices closed higher on Monday amid concerns that peace talks between the US and Iran could falter, raising doubts over Iran’s participation in the scheduled talks in Islamabad later in the evening. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on broader risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 retreating from Friday’s all‑time high and European equity markets also ending lower. Carbon prices declined as the ongoing uncertainty around negotiations continued to pressure wider market sentiment.
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| May-26 | 100.68 | 3.56 | 84.58 | 2.06 |
| Jun-26 | 98.53 | 3.42 | 86.49 | 1.12 |
| Jul-26 | 96.85 | 3.11 | 85.61 | 1.23 |
| Q3-26 | 97.55 | 2.82 | 85.85 | 1.50 |
| Q4-26 | 101.57 | 2.28 | 89.26 | 1.29 |
| Q1-27 | 101.72 | 2.42 | 89.35 | 0.65 |
| Win-26 | 101.65 | 2.35 | 89.03 | 0.96 |
| Sum-27 | 79.63 | 1.40 | 70.88 | 0.45 |
| Win-27 | 80.94 | 0.94 | 75.71 | 0.43 |