Power and gas prices hold relatively steady as markets await further clarity on the US–Iran ceasefire
Gas and power
Power and gas prices closed within the previous day’s range on Thursday as markets adopted a cautious stance while awaiting further clarity on the US–Iran ceasefire. Despite earlier claims that Lebanon was included in the agreement, Israel continued to issue warnings of new strikes across Beirut, raising doubts about the stability and durability of the ceasefire in the absence of a permanent agreement. LNG production in the region remained at a standstill, with exporters waiting for greater certainty and confidence around shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz before restarting operations.
Adjacent markets
Global equity markets moved lower yesterday while oil prices pushed higher, as investors were gripped by growing doubts over the durability of the ceasefire amid signs of a fragile agreement, following reports of Israeli attacks on Lebanon that increased the risk of the deal unravelling and a renewed escalation in conflict. In the US, PCE inflation also rose as expected, further diminishing the prospects for near term rate cuts under the current circumstances.
| NBP (p/therm) | UK Base (£/MWh) | |||
| Close | Day on Day | Close | Day on Day | |
| May-26 | 115.88 | 1.41 | 91.38 | 1.70 |
| Jun-26 | 114.01 | 1.16 | 93.97 | 1.11 |
| Jul-26 | 112.74 | 1.27 | 92.98 | 0.94 |
| Q3-26 | 113.46 | 1.08 | 93.44 | 1.07 |
| Q4-26 | 117.05 | 1.16 | 93.95 | 1.05 |
| Q1-27 | 115.91 | 1.05 | 95.46 | 0.51 |
| Win-26 | 116.48 | 1.10 | 94.57 | 0.91 |
| Sum-27 | 86.53 | 0.57 | 72.37 | 0.84 |
| Win-27 | 85.85 | -0.04 | 77.86 | 0.73 |
| Sum-28 | 63.77 | -1.16 | 62.36 | -0.38 |
| Win-28 | 70.82 | -0.31 | 71.19 | 0.88 |